A Socratic dialogue with @ToryTreasury
Yesterday I spotted a tweet from @ToryTreasury, who describes him/herself as "Official CCHQ voice for all things Treasury".Ed Miliband's spending plans he repeated today would mean £33bn more borrowing...
View ArticleDavid Goodhart's British fantasy
David Goodhart's book on immigration and the UK, the British Dream, hasn't been released yet. But on what I know (I've discussed these issues with David numerous times and he kindly asked me to read...
View ArticleA response from David Goodhart
[David Goodhart's response to my blog is now posted below]David Goodhart hereI agree with Martin! But can I just clear up Jonathan's original misunderstanding. He jumped on a couple of paragraphs in...
View ArticleThe (economic) objectives of immigration policy: a dialogue with Martin Wolf
I recently devoted a blog post to an analysis of David Goodhart's claim that people in Whitehall and Westminster made immigration policy on the basis of a view that "the only decent policy is to throw...
View ArticleWhen it comes to migration, there are no winners in the numbers game
NIESR's research for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, by NIESR researchers Tatiana Fic, Mumtaz Lalani, and Heather Rolfe, on the impact of immigration from Bulgaria and Romania was published today....
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Recessions and recoveries: a historical perspective (updated April 9, 2013)
Here is NIESR's chart showing the path of recession and recovery in various previous downturns, updated for our estimate of monthly GDP, published April 9, 2013. Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest...
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The deficit is falling..
[Updated 17.00 with HMT response: see end]The deficit is falling! Today's figures show that the budget deficit for 2012-13 (public sector net borrowing, excluding some of the more obvious distortions)...
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Underemployment in the UK
In a new paper published today in the latest issue of the National Institute Economic Review, economists David Bell and David Blanchflower of the University of Stirling and Dartmouth College introduce...
View ArticleComment on Reinhart and Rogoff's FT article
My letter to the FT responds to Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart's opinion piece (2 May):"In their article 'Austerity is not the only answer to a debt problem', Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart argue:"the...
View ArticleWhite flight: "600,000 have quit London in a decade". The true figure is far...
The Daily Mail is rarely knowingly understated when it comes to a scare story, especially about immigration. However, sometimes ignorance of basic statistical concepts does the job for them. So it is...
View ArticleThe impacts of immigration: my summary of the evidence (video)
My summary of the economic evidence on immigration: labour markets, benefits, public services and the long-term impacts on growth and productivity (8 minutes):
View ArticleTroubled Families - anatomy of a policy disaster
[IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This blog represents my personal view only: not that of NIESR or of the evaluation consortium led by Ecorys]People sometimes ask me why I spend so much time correcting the...
View ArticleMy predictions for 2017 (from the FT Economists' survey)
The Financial Times annual survey of leading British economists' predictions, views and forecasts for the year ahead was published on January 3. Last year (that is, in January 2016) this is what I...
View ArticleThe weather is not the climate: predicting the economic impacts of Brexit
Interviewed for ITN/Channel 4 News, I was asked – very reasonably – why anyone should listen to economists’ views on the economic impacts of Brexit, when many short-term forecasts that a Brexit vote...
View ArticleA(nother) debate on immigration: how about starting with the facts?
Launching the Home Affairs Select Committee inquiry on immigration, Yvette Cooper called for a "national debate" claiming that immigration "was was one of those things that people just thought was a...
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Immigration is falling. Be careful what you wish for..
Today’s immigration figures are the first with any meaningful data after the Brexit vote. And they show – as I predicted back in August – a fall in EU migration to the UK, particularly those coming...
View ArticleEU citizens’ rights: the Brexit Committee report
The report of the Commons Committee on Exiting the EU (known to its friends as the Brexit Committee) on the rights of EU citizens resident here, and UK citizens resident in other EU countries, is a...
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Spreadsheets are people too: statistics and reality
One of the occupational hazards of taking data and statistics seriously – and using social media to do so – is frequent accusations that my focus on hard numbers means that I have my head in the...
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The contradictions of Fraser Nelson
Fraser Nelson is upset with this passage, from my blog about statistics yesterday:A similar, but even more toxic, disjunction from reality is seen in those who claim that poverty is not about money....
View ArticleCitizens' rights: will Theresa May keep her promise?
Did Theresa May just commit the UK to keeping a key Vote Leave promise? No, not the £350 million – we may be getting back full control over our own laws, but not the laws of arithmetic. I mean this...
View ArticleMarking myself to market: my forecasts for 2017, evaluated
Every year the Financial Times asks, just before Christmas, 100-odd UK economists for their predictions for the year to come. And in recent years, in the spirit of Brad Delong’s call for economists...
View ArticleChild poverty forecasts: my bet with Christopher Snowdon
Last week, the Equality and Human Rights Commission published an analysis, by Howard Reed and me, of the impact of changes to tax and benefits on household living standards over the entire period 2010...
View ArticleMarking myself to market: my forecasts for 2018, evaluated
Every year the Financial Times asks, just before Christmas, 100-odd UK economists for their predictions for the year to come. And in recent years, in the spirit of Brad Delong’s call for economists...
View ArticleMarking myself to market: my forecasts for 2019, evaluated
Every year the Financial Times asks, just before Christmas, 100-odd UK economists for their predictions for the year to come. And in recent years, in the spirit of Brad Delong’s call for economists to...
View ArticleMarking myself to market: my forecasts for 2020, evaluated
Every year the Financial Times asks, just before Christmas, 100-odd UK economists for their predictions for the year to come. And in recent years, in the spirit of Brad Delong’s call for economists to...
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